Asia–Europe Rates Snap a 13-Week Slide as Carriers Line Up $4,500 FAKs

2026-10-16 / Ocean freight

Thirteen weeks down, one week back up

Drewry's World Container Index, assessed 15 October, delivered the turn: the composite rose 3% week on week to $4,485 per 40ft container. The lift came from Asia–Europe — Shanghai–Rotterdam up 6% to $3,522 and Shanghai–Genoa up 7% to $3,945, the route's first weekly gain after thirteen consecutive declines. Cargo flows suppressed by Golden Week factory closures are coming back.

The transpacific didn't follow

In the same index, the transpacific told a different story: Shanghai–Los Angeles edged up 3% to $7,884 while Shanghai–New York slipped 1% to $10,075. Drewry's capacity tracker shows six blank sailings on the transpacific next week, unchanged from this week, with strong US import demand still holding rates high. On Asia–Europe, blanks drop from six to just two — capacity is growing, not shrinking.

Will a $4,500 FAK stick?

Carriers moved fast: several lines plan FAK (freight-all-kinds) rates of $4,500–4,800 per 40ft on Asia–Europe from 19 October. Drewry is openly sceptical — fewer blank sailings and the steady return of Suez Canal transits add supply just as carriers try to push prices up. Chinese futures traders chose to believe anyway: the Shanghai INE containerised freight (Europe service) futures contract rallied 2.37% on 15 October, touching 2,818 points intraday, on expectations of November blank sailings already announced by COSCO, MSC and ONE. Analysts quoted by Futures Daily note the gap between announced and actually achieved rates, and question how long a late-October spot push can last.

Booking North Europe this week? Watch the date

Quotes will almost certainly split into two tiers either side of 19 October. If your cargo isn't urgent, waiting a week to see how much of the FAK actually sticks could be worth real money. If it is urgent, ask how long the quoted rate is valid before the box rolls.