Air Cargo Rates Dip 2.1% in Golden Week Lull, but the Peak-Season Squeeze Is Just Starting

2026-10-14 / Air freight

A seasonal dip, not a softer market

Global air freight rates slipped 2.1% in the seven days to 12 October, according to TAC Index figures published on 13 October — a familiar pattern during China's Golden Week, when factories shut and volumes thin out. The more telling number sits underneath: the Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) is still 24.3% above its level a year ago. With Chinese factories back at work this week, the dip is widely expected to reverse.

The space is already spoken for

Market sources quoted by TAC describe a firm market heading into the traditional peak: e-commerce platforms and shippers with product launches have locked in their capacity, while a group of AI "hyperscalers" — moving servers and data-centre equipment — has yet to secure space. That cargo pays whatever it takes; if it hits the spot market in volume, rates can move sharply higher within days.

Fuel has doubled in a year

The cost floor keeps rising. IATA's Jet Fuel Price Monitor recorded a 3.1% week-on-week increase to 9 October, leaving prices 111.2% above a year earlier on Middle East tensions. Fuel surcharges follow jet fuel, so even a flat base rate costs more to fly than it did last month.

Bangkok up, Europe outbound surging

Hong Kong outbound (BAI30) edged up 0.2% week on week and stands 20.5% above last year; Shanghai (BAI80) gave back 2.1% on the holiday and is likewise 20.5% higher year on year. In Southeast Asia, Bangkok outbound rates rose week on week while Vietnam–Europe eased; India softened slightly but remains far above 2025 levels. The strongest moves were out of Europe: Frankfurt up 3.0% (47.7% higher year on year) and London Heathrow up 12.1%.

One line for shippers

If you have November or December air freight plans, don't wait for rates to "fall a bit more" — peak space is allocated in booking order, and the quote you get next week may not be the one on the table today.